HDD Capacity to Double in Four Years with 60TB Drives Expected by 2028
The adoption of energy-assisted magnetic recording (EAMR) technologies, such as Seagate’s HAMR (Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording), is set to significantly boost hard disk drive (HDD) capacities in the coming years. According to the latest IEEE International Roadmap for Devices and Systems focused on Mass Data Storage, HDD capacities are expected to reach 60TB by 2028, marking a doubling of storage in just four years. This growth would represent a major shift, as the industry has seen a slower pace in capacity increases over recent years. The IEEE also anticipates an uptick in HDD unit sales alongside these advancements.
The new IEEE HDD development roadmap, which covers 2022 to 2037, outlines the technological evolution needed to reach these milestones. Key to this progress is the upcoming release of HAMR in 2024, which will enable the leap to 40TB HDDs by 2025, followed by 60TB drives by 2028. As HDD makers work towards these capacities, they’ll need to steadily increase the areal density of their platters, aiming for 2TB per square inch in 2025 and over 4TB per square inch by 2028. By 2037, areal densities could reach more than 10TB per square inch, supporting drives as large as 100TB.
Achieving these significant jumps in capacity will require advancements in platter materials, magnetic films, and new read/write heads. For example, IEEE engineers are focusing on creating more efficient magnetic and nonmagnetic materials to improve performance at high areal densities. Enhanced disk media, heads supporting over 1TB per square inch, and new dielectric films thinner than 1nm for improved read and write mechanisms will all be crucial to this endeavor.
Despite the increasing capacities, IEEE predicts that hard drives will maintain their traditional 7200 RPM speed, meaning no significant improvements in seek time or rotational latency are expected. However, the boost in areal density will enhance sequential read and write speeds, although single-actuator HDDs may see further declines in IOPS performance per terabyte.
Interestingly, IEEE forecasts that HDD unit sales will rise from 166 million in 2022 to 208 million by 2028, and could reach 359 million by 2037, reversing a decade-long decline in HDD sales. This demand surge is driven by the need for cost-effective, large-scale storage solutions, making HDDs an ideal candidate to meet the growing requirements for bulk data storage.
Though these projections depend on various factors, the future of HDD technology looks promising, with major capacity expansions on the horizon.
